Shares of Marathon Oil (MRO) have been strong performers lately, with the stock up 8% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $17.59 in the previous session. Marathon Oil has gained 158.2% since the start of the year compared to the 39.2% move for the Zacks Oils-Energy sector and the 99.1% return for the Zacks Oil and Gas – Integrated – United States industry.
What’s Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn’t missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on November 3, 2021, Marathon Oil reported EPS of $0.39 versus consensus estimate of $0.31 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 10.3%.
For the current fiscal year, Marathon Oil is expected to post earnings of $1.28 per share on $5.15 billion in revenues. This represents a 210.34% change in EPS on a 66.81% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $2.04 per share on $5.68 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 58.97% and 10.38%, respectively.
Marathon Oil may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company is due for a pullback from this level.
On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. Investors should consider the style scores a valuable tool that can help you to pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.
Marathon Oil has a Value Score of C. The stock’s Growth and Momentum Scores are B and C, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.
In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 13.4X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 9.7X versus its peer group’s average of 9.7X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 0.9. This isn’t enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.
We also need to consider the stock’s Zacks Rank, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Marathon Oil currently has a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.
Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Marathon Oil meets the list of requirements. Thus, it seems as though Marathon Oil shares could still be poised for more gains ahead.